Case Fatality Rate Related to Microcephaly Congenital Zika Syndrome and Associated Factors: A Nationwide Retrospective Study in Brazil †.

BACKGROUND: The clinical manifestations of microcephaly/congenital Zika syndrome (microcephaly/CZS) have harmful consequences on the child's health, increasing vulnerability to childhood morbidity and mortality. This study analyzes the case fatality rate and child-maternal characteristics of cases and deaths related to microcephaly/CZS in Brazil, 2015-2017. METHODS: Population-based study developed by linkage of three information systems. We estimate frequencies of cases, deaths, case fatality rate related to microcephaly/CZS according to child and maternal characteristics and causes of death. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied. RESULTS: The microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate was 10% (95% CI 9.2-10.7). Death related to microcephaly/CZS was associated to moderate (OR = 2.15; 95% CI 1.63-2.83), and very low birth weight (OR = 3.77; 95% CI 2.20-6.46); late preterm births (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 1.21-2.23), Apgar < 7 at 1st (OR = 5.98; 95% CI 4.46-8.02) and 5th minutes (OR = 4.13; 95% CI 2.78-6.13), among others. CONCLUSIONS: A high microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate and important factors associated with deaths related to this syndrome were observed. These results can alert health teams to these problems and increase awareness about the factors that may be associated with worse outcomes.

Repercussions of Zika virus emergency on the health of the population of Tocantins state, Brazil, 2015 and 2016: a descriptive study. / Repercussões da emergência do vírus Zika na saúde da população do estado do Tocantins, 2015 e 2016: estudo descritivo.

Objective To describe the occurrence of Zika virus disease and its complications in the state of Tocantins and in its capital, the city of Palmas. Methods This was a descriptive study using data from health information systems. Results Incidence of reported Zika virus disease cases in 2015 and 2016 was 295.2/100,000 inhabitants and 411.1/100,000 inhab. in the general population, and 5.9/1,000 and 27.8/1,000 live births, respectively. Higher risks occurred in women, the 20-39 year age group, municipalities in the central and northwestern regions of the state and in hotter months (February and March). Incidence of Zika-related microcephaly during pregnancy was 0.06/1,000 live births. One case of Guillain-Barré Syndrome resulting from Zika virus infection was confirmed. Conclusion Zika virus disease hit Tocantins intensely, although its adverse outcomes were less frequent than in other states.

Repercussions of Zika virus emergency in the health of the population of Tocantins, Brazil, 2015 and 2016: a descriptive study / Repercusiones de la emergencia del virus Zika en la salud de la población de Tocantins, Brasil, 2015 e 2016: estudio descriptivo / Repercussões da emergência do vírus Zika na saúde da população do estado do Tocantins, 2015 e 2016: estudo descritivo

Objective. To describe the occurrence of Zika and its complications in the state of Tocantins and in its capital, the city of Palmas. Methods. Descriptive study using data from Official Information Systems. Results. The incidence of reported cases of Zika in 2015 and 2016 was 295.2/100,000 and 411.1/100,000 inhabitants, respectively and 5.9/1000 and 27.8/1000 NV in pregnant women. Higher risks occurred in women, age 20-39 years, municipalities in the central and northwestern regions and hotter months (February and March). The incidence of Zika-related microcephaly at pregnancy was 0.06/1000 NV. One case of Guillain Barré Syndrome resulting from Zika virus infection has been confirmed. Conclusion. Zika virus fever has hit Tocantins intensely. However, their adverse outcomes have been less frequent than in others states.

Objetivo. Descrever a ocorrência da febre pelo vírus Zika (ZIKV) e suas complicações no estado do Tocantins e em sua capital, Palmas. Métodos. Estudo descritivo, utilizando dados dos sistemas de informações em saúde. Resultados. A incidência de casos notificados de febre pelo ZIKV, em 2015 e 2016, foi de 295,2/100 mil e 411,1/100 mil habitantes na população geral, e de 5,9/1000 e 27,8/1000 nascidos vivos em gestantes, respectivamente. Maiores riscos ocorreram em mulheres, nas idades de 20-39 anos, nos municípios das regiões central e noroeste do estado, durante os meses mais quentes (fevereiro e março). A incidência de microcefalia relacionada à infecção pelo ZIKV na gestação foi de 0,06/1000 nascidos vivos. Foi confirmado um caso de síndrome de Guillain-Barré decorrente da infecção pelo ZIKV. Conclusão. A febre pelo ZIKV atingiu o Tocantins intensamente, embora seus desfechos adversos tenham sido menos frequentes que em outros estados.

Repercussões da emergência do vírus Zika na saúde da população do estado do Tocantins, 2015 e 2016: estudo descritivo / Repercusiones de la aparición del virus Zika en la salud de la población de Tocantins, Brasil, 2015 e 2016: estudio descriptivo / Repercussions of Zika virus emergency on the health of the population of Tocantins state, Brazil, 2015 and 2016: a descriptive study

Objetivo: Descrever a ocorrência da febre pelo vírus Zika (ZIKV) e suas complicações no estado do Tocantins e em sua capital, Palmas. Métodos: Estudo descritivo, utilizando dados dos sistemas de informações em saúde. Resultados: A incidência de casos notificados de febre pelo ZIKV, em 2015 e 2016, foi de 295,2/100 mil e 411,1/100 mil habitantes na população geral, e de 5,9/mil e 27,8/mil nascidos vivos em gestantes, respectivamente. Maiores riscos ocorreram em mulheres, nas idades de 20-39 anos, nos municípios das regiões central e noroeste do estado, durante os meses mais quentes (fevereiro e março). A incidência de microcefalia relacionada à infecção pelo ZIKV na gestação foi de 0,06/mil nascidos vivos. Foi confirmado um caso de síndrome de Guillain-Barré decorrente da infecção pelo ZIKV. Conclusão: A febre pelo ZIKV atingiu o Tocantins intensamente, embora seus desfechos adversos tenham sido menos frequentes que em outros estados.

Objetivo: Describir la aparición de la fiebre del virus del Zika y sus complicaciones, en el estado de Tocantins y en la ciudad de Palmas, su capital. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo utilizando datos de los Sistemas Oficiales de Información. Resultados: La incidencia de casos informados de fiebre por ZIKV en 2015 y 2016 fue 295,2/100.000 y 411,1/100.000 habitantes, respectivamente y 5,9/1000 y 27,8/1000 de nacidos vivos en gestantes, respectivamente. Los riesgos mayores estuvieron en mujeres, entre los 20-39 años de edad, en los municipios de las regiones central y noroeste y en los meses más calurosos (febrero y marzo). La incidencia de microcefalia relacionada con el ZIKV en la gestación fue 0,06/1000 nacidos vivos. Se confirmó un caso de Síndrome de Guillain- Barré debido al ZIKV. Conclusión: La fiebre por el ZIKV afectó intensamente a Tocantins. Pero, sus desenlaces adversos han sido menos frecuentes que en otros estados.

Objective: To describe the occurrence of Zika virus disease and its complications in the state of Tocantins and in its capital, the city of Palmas. Methods: This was a descriptive study using data from health information systems. Results: Incidence of reported Zika virus disease cases in 2015 and 2016 was 295.2/100,000 inhabitants and 411.1/100,000 inhab. in the general population, and 5.9/1,000 and 27.8/1,000 live births, respectively. Higher risks occurred in women, the 20-39 year age group, municipalities in the central and northwestern regions of the state and in hotter months (February and March). Incidence of Zika-related microcephaly during pregnancy was 0.06/1,000 live births. One case of Guillain-Barré Syndrome resulting from Zika virus infection was confirmed. Conclusion: Zika virus disease hit Tocantins intensely, although its adverse outcomes were less frequent than in other states.

Congenital Zika Syndrome: Prevalence of low birth weight and associated factors. Bahia, 2015-2017.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical manifestations of Congenital Zika Syndrome (CZS) are not fully known, for example its effect on birth weight. This study estimated the prevalence of low birth weight (LBW) among children with CZS, and identified associated factors. METHODS: Cross-sectional study involving 393 children with CZS living in Bahia, Brazil, in 2015-2017. Official Information Systems were the data sources. We calculated LBW prevalence and applied Logistic Regression to assess associated factors. RESULTS: Prevalence of LBW among children with CZS was 37.2%. Excluding pre-term births the proportion was 29.9%. This prevalence was 81.0% and 28.0% among children born pre-term and term/post term, respectively. There was a higher proportion (53.2%) in female children, and in those delivered by cesarean section (51.4%). Most mothers were single/separated (62.1%) and had a low level of schooling (70.0%). In the model adjusted for type of delivery, preterm births presented a 10.8 times greater chance of presenting LBW than term/post-term ones. However, the Confidence Interval was very wide. Adjusting for gestation duration, children born by cesarean section had a 1.63 higher probability of presenting LBW than those born by vaginal delivery (OR=1,63; CI95% 1.01, 2.63). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of LBW among children with CZS was very elevated, both preterm and term/post-term live births. This can contribute to increasing their risk for morbimortality. The association of LBW with prematurity and cesarean deliveries is known, but in children with CZS, it has not been clarified whether or not this is related to pathological conditions caused by fetal infection by the Zika virus.

Trend in mortality due to ill-defined causes in the state of Tocantins and in its capital Palmas, Brazil, 1998-2014. / Tendência da mortalidade por causas mal definidas no estado do Tocantins e na sua capital Palmas, 1998-2014.

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the time trend of proportional mortality due to ill-defined causes, in Tocantins and Palmas, Brazil, 1998-2014. METHODS: this was a time trend study using data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Death Verification Service (SVO); we evaluated the time trend of this type of this mortality using Joinpoint Regression. RESULTS: between 1998 and 2014, proportional mortality from ill-defined causes fell 88.5% in Tocantins and 88.1% in Palmas; the trend test indicated statistically significant inflection points in 1998-2004 (-4.14; p=0.001) for Tocantins and in 1998-2000 (-7.92; p<0.005) for Palmas; a certain degree of stability was observed with effect from 2004. CONCLUSION: there was a significant decline in proportional mortality due to ill-defined causes in Tocantins; however, it is still necessary to intensify actions aimed at improving the quality of information on mortality in some municipalities.

Seroprevalence of Chikungunya Virus after Its Emergence in Brazil.

Chikungunya has had a substantial impact on public health because of the magnitude of its epidemics and its highly debilitating symptoms. We estimated the seroprevalence, proportion of symptomatic cases, and proportion of chronic form of disease after introduction of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in 2 cities in Brazil. We conducted the population-based study through household interviews and serologic surveys during October-December 2015. In Feira de Santana, we conducted a serologic survey of 385 persons; 57.1% were CHIKV-positive. Among them, 32.7% reported symptoms, and 68.1% contracted chronic chikungunya disease. A similar survey in Riachão do Jacuípe included 446 persons; 45.7% were CHIKV-positive, 41.2% reported symptoms, and 75.0% contracted the chronic form. Our data confirm intense CHIKV transmission during the continuing epidemic. Chronic pain developed in a high proportion of patients. We recommend training health professionals in management of chronic pain, which will improve the quality of life of chikungunya-affected persons.

Relevance of transportation to correlations among criticality, physical means of propagation, and distribution of dengue fever cases in the state of Bahia.

Dengue infection is a public health problem with a complex distribution. The physical means of propagation and the dynamics of diffusion of the disease between municipalities need to be analysed to direct efficient public policies to prevent dengue infection. The present study presents correlations of occurrences of reported cases of dengue infection among municipalities, self-organized criticality (SOC), and transportation between areas, identifying the municipalities that play an important role in the diffusion of dengue across the state of Bahia, Brazil. The significant correlation found between the correlation network and the SOC demonstrates that the pattern of intramunicipal diffusion of dengue is coupled to the pattern of synchronisation between the municipalities. Transportation emerges as influential in the dynamics of diffusion of epidemics by acting on the aforementioned variables.

Tendência da mortalidade por causas mal definidas no estado do Tocantins e na sua capital Palmas, 1998-2014 / Tendencia de mortalidad por causas mal definidas en el estado de Tocantins y en su capital Palmas, Brasil, 1998-2014 / Trend in mortality due to ill-defined causes in the state of Tocantins and in its capital Palmas, Brazil, 1998-2014

Objetivo: avaliar a tendência temporal da mortalidade proporcional por causas mal definidas no Tocantins e em Palmas, Brasil, em 1998-2014. Métodos: estudo de tendência temporal, utilizando dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) e do Serviço de Verificação de Óbitos (SVO); a tendência temporal dessa mortalidade foi avaliada mediante emprego da Regressão Joinpoint. Resultados: de 1998 a 2014, a mortalidade proporcional por causas mal definidas foi reduzida em 88,5% no Tocantins e 88,1% em Palmas; o teste de tendência indicou pontos de inflexão estatisticamente significante em 1998-2004 (-4,14; p=0,001) para Tocantins e em 1998-2000 (-7,92; p<0,005) para Palmas; a partir de 2004, observou-se certa estabilidade. Conclusão: a redução da mortalidade proporcional por causas mal definidas no Tocantins e em Palmas foi bastante expressiva; todavia, ainda se faz necessária a intensificação de ações voltadas para melhoria da qualidade da informação sobre mortalidade em alguns municípios.

Objetivo: evaluar la tendencia temporal de la mortalidad proporcional por causas mal definidas en Tocantins y Palmas, Brasil, en 1998-2014. Métodos: Estudio de tendencia temporal, utilizando datos del Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad (SIM) y Servicio de Verificación de Óbitos (SVO); la tendencia temporal de dicha mortalidad fue evaluada mediante empleo de la Regresión Joinpoint. Resultados: de 1998 a 2014, la mortalidad proporcional por causas mal definidas bajó 88,5% en Tocantins y 88,1% en Palmas; la prueba de tendencia indicó puntos de inflexión en 1998-2004 (-4,14; p=0,001) para Tocantins y en 1998-2000 (-7,92; p<0,005) para Palmas; a partir de 2004, se observó cierta estabilidad. Conclusión: la reducción de la mortalidad proporcional por causas mal definidas en Tocantins y Palmas fue bastante expresiva; sin embargo, aún se hace necesaria la intensificación de acciones dirigidas a mejorar la calidad de la información sobre mortalidad en algunos municipios.

Objective: to evaluate the time trend of proportional mortality due to ill-defined causes, in Tocantins and Palmas, Brazil, 1998-2014. Methods: this was a time trend study using data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Death Verification Service (SVO); we evaluated the time trend of this type of this mortality using Joinpoint Regression. Results: between 1998 and 2014, proportional mortality from ill-defined causes fell 88.5% in Tocantins and 88.1% in Palmas; the trend test indicated statistically significant inflection points in 1998-2004 (-4.14; p=0.001) for Tocantins and in 1998-2000 (-7.92; p<0.005) for Palmas; a certain degree of stability was observed with effect from 2004. Conclusion: there was a significant decline in proportional mortality due to ill-defined causes in Tocantins; however, it is still necessary to intensify actions aimed at improving the quality of information on mortality in some municipalities.

The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city.

Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in 2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced according to epidemiological week (EW) and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidemic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants). There were cases throughout the city and was identified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures, may possibly reduce the magnitude of dengue epidemics.

The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city

Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in 2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced according to epidemiological week (EW) and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidemic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants). There were cases throughout the city and was identified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures, may possibly reduce the magnitude of dengue epidemics.

Stochastic dynamics of dengue epidemics.

We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, such as dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed of two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. The human population follows a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type dynamics and the mosquito population follows a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) type dynamics. The human infection is caused by infected mosquitoes and vice versa, so that the SIS and SIR dynamics are interconnected. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. The threshold of the disease is also obtained by performing numerical simulations. We found that for certain values of the infection rates the spreading of the disease is impossible, for any death rate of infected mosquitoes.

Risk factors for the incidence of dengue virus infection in preschool children.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the seroincidence of dengue in children living in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil and to evaluate the factors associated. METHODS: A prospective serological survey was carried out in a sample of children 0-3 years of age. A multilevel logistic model was used to identify the determinants of seroincidence. RESULTS: The seroprevalence of dengue was 26.6% in the 625 children evaluated. A second survey detected an incidence of 33.2%. Multilevel logistic regression showed a statistically significant association between the seroincidence of dengue and age and the premises index. CONCLUSION: In Salvador, the dengue virus is in active circulation during early childhood; consequently, children have heterotypic antibodies and run a high risk of developing dengue haemorrhagic fever, because the sequence and intensity of the three dengue virus serotypes currently circulating in this city are very similar to those that were circulating in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2008. Therefore, the authors strongly recommend that the health authorities in cities with a similar epidemiological scenario be aware of this risk and implement improvements in health care, particularly targeting the paediatric age groups. In addition, information should be provided to the population and actions should be implemented to combat this vector.

Spread pattern of the first dengue epidemic in the city of Salvador, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The explosive epidemics of dengue that have been occurring in various countries have stimulated investigation into new approaches to improve understanding of the problem and to develop new strategies for controlling the disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of diffusion of the first dengue epidemic that occurred in the city of Salvador in 1995. METHODS: The epidemiological charts and records of notified cases of dengue in Salvador in 1995 constituted the source of data. The cases of the disease were georeferenced according to census areas (spatial units) and epidemiological weeks (temporal unit). Kernel density estimation was used to identify the pattern of spatial diffusion using the R-Project computer software program. RESULTS: Of the 2,006 census areas in the city, 1,400 (70%) registered cases of dengue in 1995 and the spatial distribution of these records revealed that by the end of 1995 practically the entire city had been affected by the virus, with the largest concentration of cases occurring in the western region, composed of census areas with a high population density and predominantly horizontal residences compared to the eastern region of the city, where there is a predominance of vertical residential buildings. CONCLUSION: The pattern found in this study shows the characteristics of the classic process of spreading by contagion that is common to most infectious diseases. It was possible to identify the epicenter of the epidemic from which centrifugal waves of the disease emanated. Our results suggest that, if a more agile control instrument existed that would be capable of rapidly reducing the vector population within a few days or of raising the group immunity of the population by means of a vaccine, it would theoretically be possible to adopt control actions around the epicenter of the epidemic and consequently reduce the incidence of the disease in the city. This finding emphasizes the need for further research to improve the technology available for the prevention of this disease.